Field Poll Understates Support for Proposition 8 But Latest Poll Shows Initiative Gaining Among Likely Voters
July 18, 2008
Sacramento --- A new Field Poll released today shows Proposition 8 the Marriage Protection ballot initiative is gaining among likely voters, although the survey continues to significantly understate support for the initiative, officials with the Proposition 8 campaign said today. The poll also shows that advocates of same-sex marriage are losing ground, compared to the last Field Poll released on May 28. While the current Field Poll shows support for Proposition 8 has increased and opposition has dropped since their last survey, the Field Poll continues to be an outlier among publicly published polling on this initiative, said Frank Schubert, Campaign Manager for Proposition 8. The latest Field Poll reports support for Proposition 8 is at 42% (up two points since May) and opposition at 51% (down from 54%). [If the Field Poll understates support by 10%, as in Prop. 22, then we are in the 52% range right now. The Field Poll has consistently understated the support of Californians who believe the definition of marriage should be upheld, Schubert said. During Proposition 22, the Field Poll reported that support for that initiative was approximately 50% in the months leading up to the election, while the measure received more than 61% of votes at the ballot box, Schubert noted. In May when Field was reporting that support for the initiative was at 40%, the Los Angeles Times survey found support at 54%. Over the years Field has consistently understated support for the initiative by a minimum of 10 percent. The current findings continue to substantially understate the true support for the initiative. Schubert said that internal campaign polling is consistent with other polls such as the LA Times survey. Support for Proposition 8 is right where it needs to be at this stage of the campaign.
